16 July 2019

Military Service and Public Sector Employment

In a study of draftees called for induction in the Vietnam-Era Selective Service Lotteries, Tim Johnson and Dalton Conley find that men whose birthdays were associated with lower lottery numbers – higher probability of being drafted – were more likely than their low-draft-probability counterparts to work for the federal government later in life.

15 July 2019

Financial Players Improve Electricity Market Efficiency

Akshaya Jha and Frank A. Wolak find evidence that introduction of purely financial participants into the California wholesale electricity market decreased the average difference, and the volatility of the difference, between day-ahead and real-time prices.

12 July 2019

Physician Bias and Racial Disparities in Veteran Health

Using records from cohorts of Union Army veterans to estimate racial differences in longevity, Shari Eli, Trevon D. Logan, and Boriana Miloucheva find acute discrimination against blacks by the doctors who certified disability. This behavior negatively affected black veterans’ pensions and mortality experience.

11 July 2019

Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases

Analyzing the short-run response to a Hyundai and Kia’s restatement of fuel-economy ratings that resulted in response to a regulatory action, Kenneth Gillingham, Sébastien Houde, and Arthur van Benthem find a one dollar increase in the present value of future gasoline costs reduces buyer willingness-to-pay by less than 50 cents.

10 July 2019

Institutional Trading Around M&A Announcements

Hedge funds in the aggregate increase their holdings of soon-to-be targets by 7.2 percent during the quarter prior to public announcement of a takeover, while mutual funds reduce equity holdings in impending targets by 3 percent, Eliezer Fich, Viktoriya Lantushenko, and Clemens Sialm find.

9 July 2019

The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit

A $1 increase in the minimum wage in a locality in the San Francisco Bay area leads to a 10 percent increase in the likelihood that a 3.5-star restaurant (as rated on Yelp) will go out of business, but has no discernible impact for a 5-star restaurant, Dara Lee Luca and Michael Luca find.

8 July 2019

Housing Market Segregation's Effect on Black Wealth

Black families entering the housing market in northern cities prior to World War II faced dual barriers to wealth accumulation, Prottoy A. Akbar, Sijie Li, Allison Shertzer, and Randall P. Walsh find, as rental prices soared by about 40 percent and home values fell on average by 10 percent.

5 July 2019

Student Debt, Wages and Amenities

Higher student debt causes graduates to accept jobs with higher wages and lower job satisfaction, a study by Mi Luo and Simon Mongey finds.

3 July 2019

Is the Phillips Curve Dead or Just Hibernating?

The success of monetary policy since the 1980s in quelling inflation and anchoring inflation expectations explains the flattening of the Phillips curve when studied in U.S. national data, but state- and MSA-level data for this period provide evidence of an inflation-unemployment tradeoff, Peter Hooper, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Amir Sufi report.

2 July 2019

Unemployment, Labor Mobility, and Climate Policy

Kenneth A. Castellanos and Garth Heutel find that a $35 per ton carbon tax would raise the aggregate unemployment rate in the U.S. by between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points.
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us