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Geoffrey Heal (28 NBER publications or working papers)
http://www.nber.org/people/geoffrey_heal


Displaying 0 - 20 of 2500 results. More results.

  • 100% Environment and Energy: Catastrophic Liabilities from Nuclear Power Plants February 2010
    Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther
    in Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, Deborah Lucas, editor

    ...Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c3037 Chapter pages in book: (235 - 257) 9 Environment and Energy Catastrophic Liabilities from Nuclear Power Plants Geoffrey Heal and Howard Kunreuther 9.1 Introduction Through a comprehensive system of preparedness, protection, response, and recovery administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA...

    /chapters/c3037

  • 99% Tipping Climate Negotiations April 2011
    Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther

    Thinking about tipping provides a novel perspective on finding a way forward in climate negotiations and suggests an alternative to the current framework of negotiating a global agreement on reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Recent work on non-cooperative games shows games with increasing differences have multiple equilibria and have a "tipping set," a subset of agents who by changing from the inefficient to the efficient equilibrium can induce all others to do the same. We argue that international climate negotiations may form such a game and so have a tipping set. This set is a small group of countries who by adopting climate control measures can make in the interests of all others to do likewise.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther WORKING PAPER 16954 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES TIPPING CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther Working Paper 16954 http://www.nber.org/papers/w16954 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 April 2011 We are grateful to Simon Dietz and Scott Barrett for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge partial...

    /papers/w16954

  • 99% Goldilocks Economies? Temperature Stress and the Direct Impacts of Climate Change April 2015
    Geoffrey Heal, Jisung Park

    We review recent literature on the effect of temperature stress on economic activity, operating through basic human physiology. There is growing evidence from both micro and macro studies of causal impacts of extreme temperature on health, labor supply, and labor productivity, driven in large part by extreme heat stress. There is also a suggestion of an optimal temperature zone for economic activity, though empirical research on potential adaptive responses remains thin. This emerging literature has implications for the consequence of climate change, and may also provide a partial explanation of why hot countries are generally poorer than temperate or cold ones.

    ...by Geoffrey Heal and Jisung Park. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Goldilocks Economies? Temperature Stress and the Direct Impacts of Climate Change Geoffrey Heal and Jisung Park NBER Working Paper No. 21119 April 2015 JEL No. J22,Q5,Q54...

    /papers/w21119

  • 99% Notes on the Economics of Energy Storage October 2016
    Geoffrey Heal

    The increasing importance of intermittent renewable energy sources suggests a growing importance for energy storage as a way of smoothing the variable output. In this paper I investigate factors affecting the amount of energy storage needed, including the degree of intermittency and the correlations between wind and solar power outputs at different locations.

    ...by Geoffrey Heal. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Notes on the Economics of Energy Storage Geoffrey Heal NBER Working Paper No. 22752 October 2016 JEL No. Q4,Q53 ABSTRACT The increasing importance of intermittent renewable energy sources...

    /papers/w22752

  • 99% Price Uncertainty and Price-Contingent Securities August 2017
    Geoffrey Heal

    I extend the classical general equilibrium treatment of uncertainty about exogenous states of nature to uncertainty about prices. Traders do not know the prices at which markets will clear but have expectations over possible prices. They trade price-contingent securities (derivatives) to insure against the risks arising from this uncertainty. I establish four results. One is set of conditions that are necessary and sufficient for the existence of equilibrium (called an equilibrium with price insurance) in this framework. A second is that equilibria with price insurance are Pareto efficient. I give conditions under which agents are fully insured at an equilibrium. Finally I show that agents' price expectations matter in the sense that they affect the equilibrium allocation of resources, and that the existence of price-contingent securities alters the equilibrium of the underlying real economy.

    ...by Geoffrey Heal. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Price Uncertainty and Price-Contingent Securities Geoffrey Heal NBER Working Paper No. 23723 August 2017 JEL No. D5,D53,G13 ABSTRACT I extend the classical general equilibrium treatment of...

    /papers/w23723

  • 99% Sustainable Growth and the Green Golden Rule August 1993
    Andrea Beltratti, Graciela Chichilnisky, Geoffrey Heal

    We study a growth model with an environmental asset which is a source of utility and an input to consumption and production. The stock of this asset follows its own ecological dynamics, which are affected by economic activity. We study the implications of an approach to ranking sequences of consumption and environment over time that place weight both on the characteristics of the sequence over any finite period and on its very long run or limiting characteristics. Chichilnisky [5] has called these "sustainable preferences". The criterion shows more intertemporal symmetry than the discounted utilitarian approach. which clearly emphasizes the immediate future at the expense of the long run. In this respect Chichilniskys criterion captures some of the concerns of those who argue for sustainability and for a heightened sense of responsibility to the future. To characterize optimal paths we define the "green golden rule", the path which maximizes long-run sustainable utility from consumption and environment.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Working Paper No, 4430 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 1993 Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper #4430 August 1993 SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND THE GREEN GOLDEN RULE ABSTRACT We study a growth model with an environmental asset which is a...

    /papers/w4430

  • 98% Supermodularity and Tipping June 2006
    Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther

    We model tipping as a game-theoretic phenomenon and investigate the connection between supermodular games, tipping of equilibria and cascading, and apply the results to issues that arise in the context of homeland security and computer security. We show that tipping and cascading can occur in supermodular games and that "increasing differences"is a sufficient condition for tipping. Supermodularity and tipping of equilibria are closely related. We relate our results to Schelling%u2019s early work on tipping.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther Working Paper 12281 http://www.nber.org/papers/w12281 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2006 Heal is at Columbia Business School and Columbia School of International Affairs, gmh1@columbia.edu. Kunreuther is at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, kunreuther@wharton.upenn.edu. We are especially...

    /papers/w12281

  • 98% Host-MNC Relations in Resource-Rich Countries November 2015
    Natasha Chichilnisky-Heal, Geoffrey Heal

    We discuss the relationship between a resource-rich developing country and a multi-national corporation (MNC) that is developing its resources for the international market. We model the connections between transparency, permeability (defined as the amount of resource rent that leaves the country) and economic development, considering the cases of democracy and autocracy. We begin by considering the role of permeability in domestic politics, showing that a decrease in permeability will always benefit the incumbent, whether the country is a democracy or an autocracy. We then suggest that the relation between the host and the MNC has the features of a classical and quite intractable version of the hold-up problem, and that this may provide the MNC with incentives to influence political outcomes within the host country by whatever means are at its disposal. The hold-up problem can be overcome by the use of a Bilateral Investment Treaty that restricts the host country's ability to alter the terms of any agreement into which it has entered, and we investigate why a country might enter into a treaty that limits its freedom of action in this way. A possible answer is to be found in the capacity of a small number of poor countries to “tip” an equilibrium where none sign such treaties to one where all sign, in the process making all worse off. Our analysis provides a micro foundation for the “obsolescing bargain model” of host-MNC relations.

    ...Heal Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 21712 http://www.nber.org/papers/w21712 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2015 The first author left a draft of this paper at her tragic death in November 2014. The second author then completed it. We are grateful to Susan Hyde, Jisung Park, John Roemer and Susan Rose-Ackerman for valuable comments. Natasha...

    /papers/w21712

  • 98% Who Should Abate Carbon Emissions? An International Viewpoint August 1993
    Graciela Chichilnisky, Geoffrey Heal

    We review the optimal pattern of carbon emission abatements across countries in a simple multi-country world. We model explicitly the fact that the atmosphere is a public good. Within this framework we establish conditions for it to be necessary for optimality that the marginal cost of abatement be the same in all countries. These condition are quite restrictive, and amount to either ignoring distributional issues between countries or operating within a framework within which lump-sum transfers can be made between countries. These results have implications for the use of tradeable emission permits, which as normally advocated will lead to the equalization of marginal abatement costs across countries. The observation that the atmosphere is a public good implies that we may need to look at a Lindahl equilibrium rather than a Walrasian equilibrium in tradeable permits.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Working Paper No. 4425 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 1993 Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NB ER Working Paper #4425 August 1993 WHO SHOULD ABATE CARBON EMISSIONS? AN INTERNATIONAL VIEWPOINT ABSTRACT We review the optimal pattern of carbon...

    /papers/w4425

  • 98% Interdependent Security: The Case of Identical Agents April 2002
    Howard Kunreuther, Geoffrey Heal

    Do firms have adequate incentives to invest in anti-terrorism mechanisms? This paper develops a framework for addressing this issue when the security choices by one agent affect the risks faced by others. We utilize the airline security problem to illustrate how the incentive by one airline to invest in baggage checking is affected by the decisions made by others. Specifically if an airline believes that others will not invest in security systems it has much less economic incentive to do so on its own. Private sector mechanisms such as insurance and liability will not necessarily lead to an efficient outcome. To induce adoption of security measures one must turn to regulation, taxation or institutional coordinating mechanisms such as industry associations. We compare the airline security example with problems having a similar structure (i.e., computer security and fire protection) as well as those with different structures (i.e., theft protection and vaccinations). The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 8871 http://www.nber.org/papers/w8871 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 April 2002 We acknowledge support for this research from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement C R 826583 with the University of Pennsylvania, the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center and the Columbia...

    /papers/w8871

  • 98% Collective Intertemporal Choice: the Possibility of Time Consistency August 2016
    Antony Millner, Geoffrey Heal

    Recent work on collective intertemporal choice suggests that non-dictatorial social preferences are generically time inconsistent. We argue that this claim conflates time consistency with two distinct properties of preferences: stationarity and time invariance. While the conjunction of time invariance and stationarity implies time consistency, the converse does not hold. Although social preferences cannot be stationary, they may be time consistent if time invariance is abandoned. If individuals are discounted utilitarians, revealed preference provides no guidance on whether social preferences should be time consistent or time invariant. Nevertheless, we argue that time invariant social preferences are often normatively and descriptively problematic.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 22524 http://www.nber.org/papers/w22524 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 2016 We are grateful to Geir Asheim, Marc Fleurbaey, and Itzhak Gilboa for very helpful comments and discussions. AM acknowledges support from the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research...

    /papers/w22524

  • 98% The Economics of Renewable Energy June 2009
    Geoffrey Heal

    Greater use of renewable energy is seen as a key component of any move to combat climate change, and is being aggressively promoted as such by the new U.S. administration and by other governments. Yet there is little economic analysis of renewable energy. This paper surveys what is written and adds to it. The conclusion is that the main renewables face a major problem because of their intermittency (the wind doesn't always blow nor the sun always shine) and that this has not been adequately factored into discussions of their potential. Without new storage technologies that can overcome this intermittency, much of the decarbonization of the economy will have to come from nuclear, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy efficiency (geothermal and biofuels can make small contributions). Nuclear and CCS are not without their problems. New energy storage technologies could greatly increase the role of renewables, but none are currently in sight.

    ...Geoffrey Heal WORKING PAPER 15081 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE ECONOMICS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 15081 http://www.nber.org/papers/w15081 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2009 I am grateful to Columbia Business School students in my course “Current Developments in Energy Markets” for discussions...

    /papers/w15081

  • 98% What Would it Take to Reduce US Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80% by 2050? August 2016
    Geoffrey Heal

    I investigate the cost and feasibility of reducing US GHG emissions by 80% from 2005 levels by 2050. The US has stated in its Paris COP 21 submission that this is its aspiration. I suggest that this goal can be reached at a cost in the range of $37 to $135 bn/year. I assume that the goal is to be reached by extensive use of solar PV and wind energy (66% of generating capacity), in which case the cost of energy storage plays a key role in the overall cost. I conclude tentatively that more limited use of renewables (less than 50%) together with increased use of nuclear power might be less costly.

    ...Geoffrey Heal. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. What Would it Take to Reduce US Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80% by 2050? Geoffrey Heal NBER Working Paper No. 22525 August 2016, Revised November 2016 JEL No. Q40,Q42,Q54 ABSTRACT I investigate the...

    /papers/w22525

  • 97% Archive of NBER Papers on Environment and Energy Economics

    ...Geoffrey Heal Notes on the Economics of Energy Storage w22753 Anthony Heyes Matthew Neidell Soodeh Saberian The Effect of Air Pollution on Investor Behavior: Evidence from the S&P 500 w22731 Laurence J. Kotlikoff Andrey Polbin Andrey Zubarev Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change? w22636 Jevan Cherniwchan...

    /papersbyprog/EEE_archive.html

  • 97% The Taxation of Exhaustible Resources 1980
    Partha Dasgupta, Geoffrey Heal, Joseph E. Stiflitx

    This paper analyzes the effect of taxation on the intertemporal allocation of an exhaustible resource. A general framework within which a large variety of taxes can be analyzed is developed and then applied to a number of specific taxes. It is shown that there exists a pattern of taxation which can generate essentially any desired pattern of resource usage. Many tax policies, however, have effects which are markedly different both from the effects that these policies would have in the case of produced commodities-and from those which they are designed (or widely thought) to have. For instance, if extraction costs are zero, a depletion allowance at a constant rate (widely thought to encourage the extraction of resources) has absolutely no effect; its gradual removal (usually thought to be preferable to a sudden removal) leads to faster rates of depletion (and lower prices) now, but higher prices in the future; which its sudden and unanticipated removal has absolutely no distortionary effect on the pattern of extraction. More generally, it is shown that the effects of tax structure on the patterns of extraction are critically dependent on expectations concerning future taxation. (The changes in tax structure which have occurred in the past fifty years are of the kind that, if they were anticipated, (or if similar further changes are expected to occur in the future) lead to excessively fast exploitation of natural resources. However, if it is believed that current tax policies (including rates) will persist indefinitely, the current tax structure would lead to excessive conservationism. Thus, whether in fact current tax policies have lead to excessive conservationism is a moot question.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Joseph Stiglitz Working Paper No. ^36 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 January I98O Paper prepared in honor of James Meade. The research reported here is part of the NBER's research program in Taxation. Any opinions expressed are those of the author and not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper...

    /papers/w0436

  • 97% You Only Die Once: Managing Discrete Interdependent Risks August 2003
    Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther

    This paper extends our earlier analysis of interdependent security issues to a general class of problems involving discrete interdependent risks with heterogeneous agents. There is a threat of an event that can only happen once, and the risk depends on actions taken by others. Any agent's incentive to invest in managing the risk depends on the actions of others. Security problems at airlines and in computer networks come into this category, as do problems of risk management in organizations facing the possibility of bankruptcy, and individuals' choices about whether to be vaccinated against an infectious disease. Surprisingly the framework also covers certain aspects of investment in R&D. Here we characterize Nash equilibria with heterogeneous agents and give conditions for tipping and cascading of equilibria.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther Working Paper 9885 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9885 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2003 Heal is at the Graduate School of Business and the Sc hool of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University - gmh1@columbia.edu and www.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/gheal. Kunreuther is the Cecilia Yen Koo...

    /papers/w9885

  • 97% Ambiguity and Climate Policy June 2010
    Antony Millner, Simon Dietz, Geoffrey Heal

    Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. Yet our knowledge of the impacts of climate change may not be of sufficient quality to justify probabilistic beliefs. In such circumstances it has been argued that the axioms of expected utility theory may not be the the correct standard of rationality. By contrast several recently-proposed axiomatic frameworks account for ambiguous beliefs. We follow this approach and apply static and dynamic versions of a smooth ambiguity model to climate policy, obtaining general results on the comparative statics of optimal abatement and ambiguity aversion and illustrating this sufficient condition in some simple examples. Greater ambiguity aversion may lead to more or less abatement depending on the details of the model. We then extend our analysis to a dynamic setting and adopt a well-known integrated assessment model to show that the value of emissions abatement increases as ambiguity aversion increases, and that this "ambiguity premium" can in some plausible cases be very large.

    ...Geoffrey Heal WORKING PAPER 16050 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES AMBIGUITY AND CLIMATE POLICY Antony Millner Simon Dietz Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 16050 http://www.nber.org/papers/wl6050 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2010 This research was supported by the Munich Re program of the Centre for Climate Change Economics Policy: ""Evaluating...

    /papers/w16050

  • 96% Social Reinforcement: Cascades, Entrapment and Tipping November 2007
    Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther

    There are many social situations in which the actions of different agents reinforce each other. These include network effects and the threshold models used by sociologists (Granovetter, Watts) as well as Leibenstein's "bandwagon effects." We model such situations as a game with increasing differences, and show that tipping of equilibria as discussed by Schelling, cascading and Dixit's results on clubs with entrapment are natural consequences of this mutual reinforcement. If there are several equilibria, one of which Pareto dominates, then we show that the inefficient equilibria can be tipped to the efficient one, a result of interest in the context of coordination problems.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther WORKING PAPER 13579 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES SOCIAL REINFORCEMENT: CASCADES, ENTRAPMENT AND TIPPING Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther Working Paper 13579 http://www.nber.org/papers/w13579 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2007 We are especially grateful Larry Samuelson for...

    /papers/w13579

  • 96% Sustainability and its Measurement May 2011
    Geoffrey Heal

    I present a non-technical high-level review the concept of sustainability and the various approaches to quantifying it.

    I present a non-technical high-level review the concept of sustainability and the various approaches to quantifying it.

    /papers/w17008

  • 96% From Growth to Green Growth - a Framework February 2012
    Stéphane Hallegatte, Geoffrey Heal, Marianne Fay, David Treguer

    Green growth is about making growth resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient without slowing it. This paper aims at clarifying this in an analytical framework and proposing foundations for green growth. This framework identifies channels through which green policies can potentially contribute to economic growth. Finally, the paper discusses the policies that can be implemented to capture co-benefits and environmental benefits. Since green growth policies pursue a variety of goals, they are best served by a combination of instruments: price-based policies are important but are only one component in a policy tool-box that can also include norms and regulation, public production and direct investment, information creation and dissemination, education and moral suasion, or industrial and innovation policies.

    ...benefits. Since green growth policies pursue a variety of goals, they are best served by a combination of instruments: price-based policies are important but are only one component in a policy tool-box that can also include norms and regulation, public production and direct investment, information creation and dissemination, education and moral suasion, or industrial and innovation policies.

    /papers/w17841

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