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  • 96% Archive of NBER Papers on Environment and Energy Economics Program

    ...Geoffrey Heal Notes on the Economics of Energy Storage w22731 Laurence J. Kotlikoff Andrey Polbin Andrey Zubarev Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change? w22658 Allison Shertzer Tate Twinam Randall P. Walsh Zoning and the Economic Geography of Cities w22644 Maureen Cropper Alan Krupnick William Raich...

    /papersbyprog/EEE_archive.html

  • 96% Sustainability and its Measurement May 2011
    Geoffrey Heal

    I present a non-technical high-level review the concept of sustainability and the various approaches to quantifying it.

    I present a non-technical high-level review the concept of sustainability and the various approaches to quantifying it.

    /papers/w17008

  • 96% From Growth to Green Growth - a Framework February 2012
    Stéphane Hallegatte, Geoffrey Heal, Marianne Fay, David Treguer

    Green growth is about making growth resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient without slowing it. This paper aims at clarifying this in an analytical framework and proposing foundations for green growth. This framework identifies channels through which green policies can potentially contribute to economic growth. Finally, the paper discusses the policies that can be implemented to capture co-benefits and environmental benefits. Since green growth policies pursue a variety of goals, they are best served by a combination of instruments: price-based policies are important but are only one component in a policy tool-box that can also include norms and regulation, public production and direct investment, information creation and dissemination, education and moral suasion, or industrial and innovation policies.

    ...benefits. Since green growth policies pursue a variety of goals, they are best served by a combination of instruments: price-based policies are important but are only one component in a policy tool-box that can also include norms and regulation, public production and direct investment, information creation and dissemination, education and moral suasion, or industrial and innovation policies.

    /papers/w17841

  • 96% Managing Catastrophic Risk June 2012
    Howard Kunreuther, Geoffrey Heal

    A principal reason that losses from catastrophic risks have been increasing over time is that more individuals and firms are locating in harm's way while not taking appropriate protective measures. Several behavioural biases lead decision-makers not to invest in adaptation measures until after it is too late. In an interdependent world with no intervention by the public sector, it may be economically rational for those at risk not to invest in protective measures. Risk management strategies that involve private-public partnerships that address these issues may help in reducing future catastrophic losses. These may include multi-year insurance contracts, well-enforced regulations, third-party inspections, and alternative risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe bonds.

    ...may be economically rational for those at risk not to invest in protective measures. Risk management strategies that involve private-public partnerships that address these issues may help in reducing future catastrophic losses. These may include multi-year insurance contracts, well-enforced regulations, third-party inspections, and alternative risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe bonds.

    /papers/w18136

  • 96% Risk Management and Climate Change December 2012
    Howard Kunreuther, Geoffrey Heal, Myles Allen, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christopher B. Field, Gary Yohe

    The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability, or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations, such as evaluating climate policies, where generally agreed-upon probability distributions are not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. This broader risk management approach enables one to examine a range of possible outcomes and the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

    ...Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations, such as evaluating climate policies, where generally agreed-upon probability distributions are not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. This broader risk management approach enables one to examine a range of possible outcomes and the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

    /papers/w18607

  • 96% Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics March 2013
    Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner

    Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes, or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical expected utility framework of limited value. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change and resolve these into various components, commenting on their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that are appropriate in the absence of quantitative probabilistic information, including non-probabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and discuss their application in climate change economics.

    ...the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change and resolve these into various components, commenting on their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that are appropriate in the absence of quantitative probabilistic information, including non-probabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and discuss their application in climate change economics.

    /papers/w18929

  • 96% Discounting under Disagreement April 2013
    Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner

    A group of agents disagree about the appropriate inter temporal preferences to use when exploiting a common productive resource. They thus delegate decision making to a social planner who allocates consumption efficiently across heterogeneous individuals and over time. We define `policy equivalent' representative agents as those agents whose optimal consumption plan reproduces the optimal aggregate consumption plan of the group, and find conditions that must be satisfied by all such representative preferences. We then show that any policy equivalent representative agent must have a rate of time preference that approaches the lowest rate in the population asymptotically. We characterize the term-structure of separable policy-equivalent preferences in the the case of common felicity functions, and show that if the felicity function is iso-elastic, and time preferences are gamma distributed, representative agents must have hyperbolic time preferences. This gives a normative significance to such preferences, which have hitherto been seen as an entirely behavioral phenomenon. Finally, we examine the temporal stability of representative preferences if the planner cannot commit to inter temporal allocations. We show that while consumption plans are not time consistent, they are renegotiation proof, and thus stable under proposals for change. We argue that this feature has normative appeal for public decision-making.

    ...hitherto been seen as an entirely behavioral phenomenon. Finally, we examine the temporal stability of representative preferences if the planner cannot commit to inter temporal allocations. We show that while consumption plans are not time consistent, they are renegotiation proof, and thus stable under proposals for change. We argue that this feature has normative appeal for public decision-making.

    /papers/w18999

  • 96% Feeling the Heat: Temperature, Physiology & the Wealth of Nations December 2013
    Geoffrey Heal, Jisung Park

    Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many economic studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agriculture, conflict, sea-level rise), few address the possibility of direct impacts operating through physiology, despite a deep medical literature documenting the temperature sensitivity of human task performance. This paper attempts a synthesis of these literatures by (1) presenting a microeconomic model of labor supply under thermal stress, and (2) using country-level panel data on temperature and income (1950-2005) to illustrate the potential magnitude of temperature- driven productivity impacts. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find significant temperature sensitivity of per capita income that varies, crucially, with a country's position relative to an optimal temperature zone. Hotter-than- average years are associated with lower output per capita for countries in hot climates and higher output per capita for countries in cold ones: approximately 3%-4% per degree C in both directions. Air-conditioning mediates the adverse impact of hotter years, consistent with the physiological explanation. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.

    ...in hot climates and higher output per capita for countries in cold ones: approximately 3%-4% per degree C in both directions. Air-conditioning mediates the adverse impact of hotter years, consistent with the physiological explanation. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.

    /papers/w19725

  • 96% Global Benefits of Marine Protected Areas March 2014
    Geoffrey Heal, James Rising

    Case studies suggest that Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) can be effective tools for fishery management. This study uses global datasets of MPAs and stock assessments to estimate the strength and robustness of their benefits. We apply multiple models, including a treatment-control pairing, a logistic model estimated with fixed-effects, and a regression tree to identify key characteristics. We find that regions with significant MPA designations increased their yearly yield by 17e3 MT/yr while those without experienced a loss of 20e3 MT/yr. On average, a 1% increase in protected area results in an increase in the growth rate of fish populations by about 1%. Considering only IUCN classified protected areas, and only marine portions of MPAs, growth rates increase 2% per percent area protected. MPA size is a key parameter which determines their per-area effectiveness. Using these results, we produce an estimate of the economic benefits of protected areas, relative to their costs. About 60% of country regions currently have insufficient protected areas to generate economic benefits, where the average break-even point for economic benefits of MPAs is at 8.5% of marine area.

    ...area protected. MPA size is a key parameter which determines their per-area effectiveness. Using these results, we produce an estimate of the economic benefits of protected areas, relative to their costs. About 60% of country regions currently have insufficient protected areas to generate economic benefits, where the average break-even point for economic benefits of MPAs is at 8.5% of marine area.

    /papers/w19982

  • 96% Resolving Intertemporal Conflicts: Economics vs Politics November 2014
    Antony Millner, Geoffrey Heal

    Intertemporal conflicts occur when a group of agents with heterogeneous time preferences must make a collective decision about how to manage a common asset. How should this be done? We examine two methods: an 'Economics' approach that seeks to implement efficient allocations, and a 'Politics' approach in which agents vote over consumption plans. We compare these methods by varying two characteristics of the problem: are agents' preferences known or are they hidden information, and can they commit to intertemporal collective plans or not? We show that if commitment is possible the Economics approach always Pareto dominates the Politics approach, in both full and hidden information scenarios. By contrast, without commitment the group may be better off if the Politics approach is adopted. We investigate when Politics trumps Economics analytically, and then apply our model to a survey of economists' views on the appropriate pure rate of time preference for project appraisal. For a wide range of model parameters, and under both full and hidden information, the Politics approach is supported by a majority of agents, and leads to higher group welfare.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 20705 http://www.nber.org/papers/w20705 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2014 Without necessarily tying them to the content of the paper, we are grateful for helpful comments from Geir Asheim, Elizabeth Baldwin, Niko Jaakkola, Derek Lemoine, and Paulo Piacquadio. We are especially grateful to Ben Groom and co...

    /papers/w20705

  • 94% Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions April 2008
    Geoffrey Heal

    What have we learned from the outpouring of literature as a result of the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change? A lot. We have explored the model space and the parameter space much more thoroughly, though there are still unexplored regions. While there are aspects of the Stern Review's analysis with which we can disagree, it seems fair to say that it has catalyzed a fundamental rethinking of the economic case for action on climate change. We are now in a position to give some conditions that are sufficient to provide a case for strong action on climate change, but need more work before we have a fully satisfactory account of the relevant economics. In particular we need to understand better how climate change affects natural capital - the natural environment and the ecosystems comprising it - and how these affect human welfare.

    ...Geoffrey Heal WORKING PAPER 13927 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CLIMATE ECONOMICS: A META-REVIEW AND SOME SUGGESTIONS Geoffrey Heal Working Paper 13927 http://www.nber.org/papers/w13927 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 April 2008 I am grateful to Tony Fisher, Claude Henry, Bengt Kristrom, Karl-Goran Maler and Nick Stern for...

    /papers/w13927

  • 92% Interdependent Security: A General Model August 2004
    Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther

    In an interdependent world the risks faced by any one agent depend not only on its choices but also on those of all others. Expectations about others' choices will influence investments in risk-management, and the outcome can be sub-optimal investment all round. We model this as the Nash equilibrium of a game and give conditions for such a sub-optimal equilibrium to be tipped to an optimal one. We also characterize the smallest coalition to tip an equilibrium, the minimum critical coalition, and show that this is also the cheapest critical coalition, so that there is no less expensive way to move the system from the sub- optimal to the optimal equilibrium. We illustrate these results by reference to airline security, the control of infectious diseases via vaccination and investment in research and development.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther Working Paper 10706 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10706 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 2004 Heal is at the Graduate School of Business and the Sc hool of International and Public Affairs and Director of the Center for Environment Economy and Society at Columbia University - gmh1@columbia.edu and www.gsb...

    /papers/w10706

  • 86% Comment on "Environment and Energy: Catastrophic Liabilities from Nuclear Power Plants" February 2010
    William Pizer
    in Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, Deborah Lucas, editor

    ...of Heal and Kunreuther, who turn their attention to a broad category of such costs and benefits—environmental assets and liabilities—in order to see if there are any lessons for current policymakers. Their chapter breaks down into two parts: first, a review of environmental assets and accounting; and second, a review of environmental liabilities and insurance, with a particular emphasis on...

    /chapters/c3075

  • 84% Policy Watch: Challenges for Terrorism Risk Insurance in the United States November 2004
    Howard Kunreuther, Erwann Michel-Kerjan

    This paper examines the role that insurance has played in dealing with terrorism before and after September 11, 2001, by focusing on the distinctive challenges associated with terrorism as a catastrophic risk. The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) was passed by the U.S. Congress in November 2002, establishing a national terrorism insurance program that provides up to $100 billion commercial coverage with a specific but temporary risk-sharing arrangement between the federal government and insurers. TRIA's three-year term ends December 31, 2005, so Congress soon has to determine whether it should be renewed, whether an alternative terrorism insurance program should be substituted for it, or whether insurance coverage is left solely in the hands of the private sector. As input into this process, the paper examines several alternatives and scenarios, and discusses their potential to create a sustainable terrorism insurance program in the Unites States.

    ...Geoffrey Heal, Carl Hedde, Claude Henry, James Hines, Dwight Jaffee, Ken Jenkins, Maurice Kilavuka, Paul Kleindorfer, Patrick Lagadec, James Macdonald, Don Mango, Linda Moeller, David Moss, Frank Nutter, Paul O’Connell, Mike O’Malley, Chandu Patel, Burkhard Pedell, Beverly Porter, Thomas Russell, Todd Sandler, Jack Seaquist, Jason Schupp, Stephen Shore, Kent Smetters, Greg Stern, Craig Tillman...

    /papers/w10870

  • 83% The Derivation of Discount Rates with an Augmented Measure of Income. August 2016
    Nicholas Z. Muller

    Most developed economies invest in public goods such as national defense, education, infrastructure, and the environment. Expenditures on public projects entail a diversion of funds away from investments in private capital. Discount rates used to evaluate such projects should reflect the rate of return on the current mix of investment opportunities. The present paper derives discount rates using an augmented measure of national income inclusive of non-market goods. The discount rate reflects three key factors: the productivity of private capital, the opportunity cost of direct expenditure on public projects, and the returns to public investment that accrete outside of the market boundary. The difference between this social rate and the market rate depends on the latter two factors. In the first empirical calculation of discount rates in this setting, the paper reports that, in the U.S. economy, the difference between augmented and market discount rates amounts to 1.24 percent from 1999 to 2002 and under 1 percent from 2002 to 2011.

    ...Heal, 2009; 2012; Maler, Aniyar, Jansson, 2008). 1 3 investment in private capital are diverted to abatement. This result, reported by Weitzman (1994), is a clear elicitation of the need to employ an augmented measure of output in the presence of external economies; because a market-centered accounting framework does not allow environmental damage to directly affect income, abatement can only...

    /papers/w22579

  • 83% NBER Papers on Environment and Energy Economics Program

    ...Geoffrey Heal Howard Kunreuther Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping w27121 Robert S. Pindyck COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion w27098 Shooshan Danagoulian Daniel S. Grossman David Slusky Office Visits Preventing Emergency Room Visits: Evidence From the Flint Water Switch w27086 Douglas Almond...

    /papersbyprog/EEE.html

  • 79% NBER Reporter 2011 Number 1: Research Summary

    ...Geoffrey Heal and I began exploring the impact that weak links in an interconnected system would have on the decisions of others to invest in protective measures. We focused on the tragic Pan Am 103 crash over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. In that instance, the weak link was an obscure airport, Gozo in Malta, where terrorists checked a bomb on Malta Airlines that eventually was loaded onto Pan Am...

    /reporter/2011number1/howard.html

  • 79% NBER Reporter 2011 Number 1: Research Summary

    ...Geoffrey Heal and I began exploring the impact that weak links in an interconnected system would have on the decisions of others to invest in protective measures. We focused on the tragic Pan Am 103 crash over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. In that instance, the weak link was an obscure airport, Gozo in Malta, where terrorists checked a bomb on Malta Airlines that eventually was loaded onto Pan Am...

    /reporter/2011number1/Kunreuther.html

  • 78% UncertaintyEnvironmentalMay09.DVI

    ...Heal, Paul Klemperer, Charles Kolstad, Raj Mehra, Steve Newbold, Edward Schlee, V. Kerry Smith, and Martin Weitzman, as well as seminar participants at the IMF, Resources for the Future, the NBER, Arizona State University, Columbia, Harvard, and UC Berkeley for helpful comments and suggestions. 1 1 Introduction. Economic analyses of climate change policies often focus on a set of “likely...

    /conferences/2009/CCPP/pindyck.PDF

  • 78% Archive of NBER Papers on Political Economy Program

    ...Geoffrey Heal Collective Intertemporal Choice: the Possibility of Time Consistency w22488 Stefano Gagliarducci M. Daniele Paserman Gender Differences in Cooperative Environments? Evidence from the U.S. Congress w22465 Rasmus Landersø James J. Heckman The Scandinavian Fantasy: The Sources of Intergenerational Mobility in Denmark and the U.S....

    /papersbyprog/POL_archive.html

  • 77% NBER Reporter Online

    ...-Heal and Geoffrey Heal model the political influence of multinational corporations extracting rents from resource-rich countries. 84                                                                 Figure 5     In the rapidly growing economies in the developing world, the energy infrastructure is...

    /reporter/2016number2

  • 76% Environment and Energy Economics

    ...-Heal and Geoffrey Heal model the political influence of multinational corporations extracting rents from resource-rich countries. 84 , 36(1), 2015, pp. 1-21. ↩      63. M. Fowlie, M. Greenstone, and C. Wolfram, "Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver? Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program," NBER Working Paper No. 21331 , July 2015. ↩      64. J. D. Hamilton...

    /programs/eee/eee.html

  • 76% Environment and Energy Economics

    ...-Heal and Geoffrey Heal model the political influence of multinational corporations extracting rents from resource-rich countries. 84 , 36(1), 2015, pp. 1-21. ↩      63. M. Fowlie, M. Greenstone, and C. Wolfram, "Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver? Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program," NBER Working Paper No. 21331 , July 2015. ↩      64. J. D. Hamilton...

    /programs/eee

  • 75% What is the Business of Business? June 2017
    Andreas Nilsson, David T. Robinson

    This paper develops a simple framework for understanding the emergence of new organizational forms, such as socially responsible firms and social entrepreneurs, that embody the private sector's efforts to resolve problems that typically have been within the purview of government and traditional public charities. We consider organizations that can generate both financial and social returns. Differences in the technologies between the for-profit sector and the social sector give rise to comparative advantages and play a key part in the analysis. This allows us to analyze the conditions under which hybrid organizations emerge in place of traditional charities and profit-maximizers.

    ...to Heal (2008), sales of the pan increased by 250 per cent. Fisman et al. (2006) develops a signaling model in which CSR may serve as a means of vertical differentiation in a market where quality is difficult to observe. In their analysis, there is no complementarity between between the production of a good and the provision of CSR. Instead, entrepreneurs can be of one of two types: either purely...

    /papers/w23505

  • 74% Archive of New National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers and Books

    ...Geoffrey Heal #17008 ( EEE     PE ) Continuous Workout Mortgages Robert J. Shiller, Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, and Mark B. Shackleton #17007 ( AP ) Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions Leonard Nakamura #17006 ( PE ) Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets? Some...

    /new_archive/jun11.html

  • 74% Archive of New National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers and Books

    ...Geoffrey Heal and Antony Millner #18999 ( EEE     PE ) Do Grants to Charities Crowd Out Other Income? Evidence from the UK James Andreoni, A. Abigail Payne, and Sarah Smith #18998 ( PE ) Keeping it Fresh: Strategic Product Redesigns and Welfare Bruce A. Blonigen, Christopher R. Knittel, and Anson Soderbery #18997 ( IO     PR ) Growth and Structural Transformation...

    /new_archive/jun13.html

  • 72% Archive of NBER Papers on Public Economics Program

    ...Geoffrey Heal Notes on the Economics of Energy Storage w22745 Leemore Dafny Christopher Ody Matthew Schmitt When Discounts Raise Costs: The Effect of Copay Coupons on Generic Utilization w22742 Benjamin J. Keys Jialan Wang Minimum Payments and Debt Paydown in Consumer Credit Cards w22740 Steven J. Davis An...

    /papersbyprog/PE_archive.html

  • 72% Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism December 2003
    Howard Kunreuther, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Beverly Porter

    This paper discusses new challenges we face with terrorism as a catastrophic risk by focusing on risk assessment, risk management as well as risk financing issues. The special characteristics of terrorism compared with major natural hazards call for the development of public-private partnerships, as recognized in November 2002 when the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) was passed. This paper shows, however, that the temporary insurance system established by TRIA is neither a complete answer nor a definitive one. It raises fundamental questions for U.S. insurers as to how they will estimate the risk in order to set premiums for terrorist coverage that they now must offer to their clients. We discuss some of the most recent developments of terrorism models for helping insurers and reinsurers assess the premiums they should charge and how much coverage they can assume as well as for firms to better understand their exposure. Since the passage of TRIA, the current level of demand for insurance coverage has remained low and we discuss some factors that may contribute to it. After presenting alternative foreign public-private partnerships and discussing the potential role for terrorist catastrophe bonds, we provide some features of a more sustainable program for terrorism insurance in the U.S. after December 31, 2005.

    ...Heal, Carl Hedde, Paul Kleindorfer, Christian Gollier, Patricia Grossi, Burkhard Pedell, Jack Seaquist, Kent Smetters and Gordon Woo for valuable comments on various drafts of this paper. Kunreuther and Michel-Kerjan acknowledge financial support from Radi ant Trust, Lockheed Martin and the Institut Veolia. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of...

    /papers/w10179

  • 71% Papers Issued in 1993

    ...Geoffrey Heal w4424 August 1993 Retirement Systems in Developed and Developing Countries: Institutional Features, Economic Effects, and Lessons for Economies in Transition Olivia S. Mitchell w4421 August 1993 The Choice Between Public and Private Debt: An Analysis of Post-Deregulation Corporate Financing in Japan Takeo Hoshi, Anil Kashyap, and David Scharfstein w4422 August 1993 Inflation and...

    /papersbyyear/1993.html

  • 71% Papers Issued in 2012

    ...Climate Change Howard Kunreuther, Geoffrey Heal, Myles Allen, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christopher B. Field, and Gary Yohe w18606 December 2012 External Imbalances and Financial Crises Alan M. Taylor w18604 December 2012 Concording EU Trade and Production Data over Time Ilke Van Beveren, Andrew B. Bernard, and Hylke Vandenbussche w18603 December 2012 Cyclical Variation in Labor Hours and Productivity...

    /papersbyyear/2012.html

  • 71% Industrial Productivity in a Hotter World: The Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Firm Investment in Air Conditioning December 2016
    Joshua Graff Zivin, Matthew E. Kahn

    How will a nation’s aggregate urban productivity be affected by climate change? The joint distribution of climate conditions and economic activity across a nation’s cities will together determine industrial average exposure to climate risk. Air conditioning (AC) can greatly reduce this heat exposure. We develop a simple model of air conditioning adoption by heterogeneous firms within an industry. Our analysis suggests that high productivity firms are more likely to adopt AC since they suffer larger productivity losses when it is hot. Given that the most productive firms produce a disproportionate share of industry-level output, we present aggregation results highlighting how the industry’s output is insulated from the heat. Our empirical analysis of the impacts of heat on total factor productivity in U.S manufacturing yields findings broadly consistent with our model’s predictions.

    ...Heal and Park, 2013, respectively). That poorer countries experience a larger negative marginal effect of heat on macroeconomic performance is also consistent with the notion that access to cooling infrastructure may play an important role in adaptation to climate change (Dell et al., 2013). Indeed, government officials in nations close to the equator are well aware of the challenges their nations...

    /papers/w22962

  • 70% International Adjustment with Habit-Forming Consumption: A Diagrammatic Exposition June 1992
    Maurice Obstfeld

    This paper presents a simple diagrammatic analysis of an open economy's external adjustment process under habit-forming individual preferences. The exposition focuses on the consumption side and aims to make transparent the linkage among wealth, past consumption experience, and current consumption. An extension of the standard representative-agent model to a growing economy of overlapping generations completes the paper. Under habit formation an agent's consumption exhibits a form of hysteresis, in that his current consumption depends on his past consumption experience as well as initial assets. In the overlapping-generations model aggregate hysteresis disappears in the long run.

    ...Heal (1973)/ In this paper I present a simple diagrammatic exposition of habit-forming consumption behavior, with the aim of making transparent the linkage among wealth, past consumption experience, and current consumption. The setting, closely akin to the one assumed by Mansoorian (1991), is a small open economy facing a given world real interest rate. To obtain the closed-form solutions that...

    /papers/w4094

  • 69% Papers Issued in 2013

    ...Geoffrey Heal and Jisung Park w19726 December 2013 The Effect of Patient Cost Sharing on Utilization, Health, and Risk Protection Hitoshi Shigeoka w19727 December 2013 Employee Spinouts, Social Networks, and Family Firms James E. Rauch w19728 December 2013 Have Financial Markets Become More Informative? Jennie Bai, Thomas Philippon, and Alexi Savov w19729 December 2013 The Economics of Energy...

    /papersbyyear/2013.html

  • 69% Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty: When is Good News Bad? January 2015
    Mark C. Freeman, Gernot Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser

    Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity—how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the “likely” range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the “best estimate.” We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and excise a best estimate. Intuitively, it might seem that a lower bottom would be good news. Here we ask: When might apparently good news about climate sensitivity in fact be bad news? The lowered bottom value also implies higher uncertainty about the temperature increase, a definite bad. Under reasonable assumptions, both the lowering of the lower bound and the removal of the “best estimate” may well be bad news.

    ...Heal (2013). 4 ,0 (1) ∗ ,0 , , . The left-hand side of equation (1) represents the immediate gain in utility from not spending on mitigation today, while the right-hand side is the expected gain in future utility from mitigating climate change and, thus, consuming ∗ rather than . For given ∗ ∗ and , we will define the value function to be 1 , . Assume that the planner’s utility...

    /papers/w20900

  • 69% Expect Above Average Temperatures: Identifying the Economic Impacts of Climate Change June 2017
    Derek Lemoine

    A rapidly growing empirical literature seeks to estimate the costs of future climate change from time series variation in weather. I formally analyze the consequences of a change in climate for economic outcomes. I show that those consequences are driven by changes in the distribution of realized weather and by expectations channels that capture how anticipated changes in the distribution of weather affect current and past investments. Studies that rely on time series variation in weather omit the expectations channels. Quantifying the expectations channels requires estimating how forecasts affect outcome variables and simulating how climate change would alter forecasts.

    ...(Heal and Park, 2013), health (Deschenes, 2014), mortality (Barreca et al., 2016), crime (Ranson, 2014), energy use (Auffhammer and Aroonruengsawat, 2011; Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011), income (Deryugina and Hsiang, 2014), emotions (Baylis, 2017), and more. The typical study first estimates the causal effects of weather on the dependent variable of interest and then uses physical climate...

    /papers/w23549

  • 69% Environment and Energy Economics

    Geoffrey Heal and Wolfram Schlenker , Columbia University and NBER Coase, Hotelling and Pigou: The Incidence of a Carbon Tax and CO2 Emissions (NBER Working Paper No. 26086 ) A carbon tax has been widely discussed as a way of reducing fossil fuel use and mitigating climate change, generally in a static framework. Unlike standard goods that can be produced, oil is an...

    /conferences/2020/EEEs20/summary.html

  • 68% Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather September 2018
    Derek Lemoine

    I formally relate the consequences of climate change to the time series variation in weather extensively explored by recent empirical literature. I show that reduced-form fixed effects estimators can recover the effects of climate if agents are myopic, if agents' payoff functions belong to a particular class, or if the actions agents take in each period do not depend on actions taken in previous periods. I also show how to recover structural estimates of climate change impacts from reduced-form weather regressions. Applying this new method, I find that an additional 2°C of global warming would reduce eastern U.S. agricultural profits by around 50% under the median estimates.

    ...(Heal and Park, 2013; Zhang et al., 2018), health (Desch-enes, 2014), crime (Ranson, 2014), and energy use (Auffhammer and Aroonruengsawat, 2011; Deschenes and Greenstone, 2011). Many economists have intuited that short-run adaptation responses to weather are likely to be smaller than long-run adaptation responses to climate (e.g., Deschenes and Greenstone, 2007). I show that the critical...

    /papers/w25008

  • 68% Archive of NBER Papers on Development Economics Program

    ...-Heal Geoffrey Heal Host-MNC Relations in Resource-Rich Countries w21699 Isaac Ehrlich Jinyoung Kim Immigration, Human Capital Formation and Endogenous Economic Growth w21697 Shari Eli Nicholas Li Caloric Requirements and Food Consumption Patterns of the Poor w21690 Murillo Campello Mauricio Larrain Enlarging the...

    /papersbyprog/DEV_archive.html

  • 68% Competitive Diffusion September 1993
    Boyan Jovanovic, Glenn MacDonald

    The usual explanation for why the producers of a given product use different technologies involves "vintage-capital": A firm understands the frontier technology, but can still prefer an older, less efficient technology in which it has made specific physical and human capital investments. This paper develops an alternative. "information-barrier" hypothesis: Firms differ in the technologies they use because it is costly for them to overcome the informational barriers that separate them. The paper endogenizes both innovative and imitative effort. The industry life-cycle implications -- declining price and increasing output -- broadly agree with the Gort-Klepper data. Empirically, the paper focuses on the slow spread of Diesel locomotives, which can not be explained by the vintage-capital hypothesis alone. For instance, contrary to that hypothesis, railroads were buying new steam locomotives long after the Diesel first came into use -- exactly as the information-barrier hypothesis would imply.

    ...Geoffrey Heal Sustainable Growth and the Green Golden Role 8/93 4431 Scott Boggess John Bound Did Criminal Activity Increase During the 1980s? Comparisons Across Data Sources 8/93 4432 Janet Cunrie. Lucia Nixon Nancy Cole Restrictions on Medicaid Funding of Abortion: Effects on Pregnancy Resolutions and Birth Weight 8/93 4433 Magnus BlomstrCra Edward N. Wolff Growth in a Dual Economy 8/93 4434...

    /papers/w4463

  • 67% Papers Issued in 2015

    ...-Heal and Geoffrey Heal w21713 November 2015 Work and Consumption in an Era of Unbalanced Technological Advance Benjamin M. Friedman w21714 November 2015 Prescription Drug Advertising and Drug Utilization: The Role of Medicare Part D Abby Alpert, Darius Lakdawalla, and Neeraj Sood w21715 November 2015 How Strong are Ethnic Preferences? Lars Ivar Oppedal Berge, Kjetil Bjorvatn, Simon Galle...

    /papersbyyear/2015.html

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